Fantasy Baseball

The big news this weekend in baseball was the three-game sweep Boston laid upon New York. However, the truth is that it should’ve been expected.

The Red Sox went with three of their best pitchers. The Yankees matched with three pitchers who might not even be in their rotation come money time.

It’s almost as if the Yankees were conceding this series. But even then, the Yankees were a few outs and a few hits away from winning at least a couple of the games.

Alex Rodriguez continued his hot streak. If he’s on your fantasy team, you are feeling good right now. The Yankees lineup as a whole looks powerful, even while losing to Boston.

The Red Sox also look like they are going to produce a lot of runs this season. David Ortiz is swinging the bat very nicely. As a whole, both teams can go nine deep in their batting order.

The biggest fantasy impact I can take out of the series is that it’s a good idea to have a Yankee or a Red Sock on your team. Even a mediocre player will see their runs and RBI total skyrocket compared to where those same stats would be on another team.

Another thing to note is the pitching of Mariano Rivera. The usually unhittable closer for the Yankees all of a sudden looks mortal. If he’s on your fantasy team, it might be a good idea to see if you can sell him for good value. This is especially true in a keeper or dynasty league.

Chances are Rivera bounces back but one day his run is going to end and when it does, you don’t want to be stuck with a player who had trade value at one point.

After two starts for the Seattle Mariners where he allowed only four hits in 17 innings while striking out 18, Felix Hernandez left his third start with what was described as a sore elbow.

With Mariner fans fearing the worst, Hernandez has been diagnosed with a muscle strain inside his right elbow and forearm. King Felix is expected to miss only two to three starts.

Although it’s certainly great news that he doesn’t need to go under the knife, any arm trouble for a young pitcher early in a season usually is an ominous sign. Hernandez, who is only 21-years-old, is perhaps the greatest pitching prospect in the league, but fantasy owners need to take a long, hard look at this situation.

Last season, Francisco Liriano was a young pitching prodigy who battled some arm trouble throughout the year. Despite putting up dominating numbers while healthy, the nagging injuries eventually caught up to him and he ended up blowing his arm out. He missed the end of last season and is expected to miss the entire 2007 campaign as well.

Fantasy owners who own Hernandez shouldn’t panic at this stage of the season, as it’s possible that he could shake off this strain and continue on his way to a dominating season. However, it’d be smart to ask around and see what kind of offers you can get for him. If there is someone willing to depart with a top tier pitcher and a bat for the young phenom, it’d be smart to consider the offer.

Of course in keeper and dynasty leagues, Hernandez has much more value. In redrafts, Hernandez doesn’t have near as much value, especially considering this injury.

Chicago White Sox pitcher Mark Buehrle threw the first no-hitter of the baseball season. Seeing as over two years passed between Randy Johnson’s perfect game and Anibal Sanchez’s no-hitter last September, the fact that a no-hitter happened so early in the season is a bit of a surprise.

Buehrle walked only one batter in the 40-degree night at Comiskey Park. After walking Sammy Sosa in the fifth inning, Buehrle subsequently picked him off first base.

In command throughout , Buerhle seemed to not show too much emotion until the ninth inning.

“You don’t want to make that one mistake and give up a hit,” the 28-year-old Buehrle said. “I could feel my knees a little bit, a little shaken, a little extra adrenaline going for the ninth inning.”

The performance could go a long ways in putting Buehrle back on the fantasy baseball map. After a dominating stretch between 2001 and 2005 in which Buehrle went 81-52, the big left hander took a step back last season, going 12-13 with a career-high 4.99 ERA.

If you can get Buehrle for cheap, go ahead and do so. But don’t overpay for him because he could very easily return to his 2006 form. While Buehrle had eight strikeouts during his no-hitter, he had only two strikeouts in his first two starts.

Think of him as a solid number two or three starter in your fantasy rotation. If he’s more than that, you could be in trouble. Despite the heroics we saw Wednesday.

We reported some breaking news regarding injuries yesterday and how they will affect fantasy baseball. Today we have a couple more injuries and some updates on injuries previously reported on.

• Alfonso Soriano - After straining his hamstring, many Cubs fans feared the worst. Luckily for them, Soriano isn’t going to miss that much time. Reports today indicate that the Cubs outfielder is only going to miss around a week’s worth of games. However, fantasy baseball owners should keep an eye on him because these types of injuries can linger.
• Vladimir Guerrero - Guerrero got hit on the hand on Monday by a Josh Beckett pitch. The good news came today when it was revealed that Guerrero is only going to miss a couple days. If this truly is just a bruise, fantasy owners should confidently put him back in the lineup by the end of the week.
• Jason Schmidt - Schmidt was put on the DL by the Dodgers due to a shoulder injury. An MRI was taken after it was noticed that Schmidt had been pitching with decreased velocity. It isn’t immediately known how long Schmidt will be sidelined, but it’s never good for a pitcher to hurt his arm early in the year.
• Torii Hunter - After hitting a grand slam in Tuesday’s game, Hunter left the contest with a bruised shoulder after attempting to make a diving catch. Hunter has had some injuries over the years due to his all-out approach on the field. A bruised shoulder doesn’t sound overly serious, but monitor this situation closely in case the injury is upgraded.

Injuries are always a huge part of fantasy sports. No matter how good your team is, if the injury gods strike your team, your team can be decimated back to mediocrity. No fantasy team is bigger than the injury bug.

Early this season, the injury bug has been viscous to the Toronto Blue Jays. Closer BJ Ryan is expected to miss four to six weeks with an elbow sprain. And that’s actually good news because the team feared that the injury was much more severe. In Ryan’s place, Jason Frasor will be called upon to close.

Joining Ryan on the disabled list is Blue Jays’ all-star third baseman Troy Glaus. Glaus has a bone spur in his left foot and a hamstring injury. Although the injuries aren’t severe, these are the nagging type that can linger for much of the early season. Replacing Glaus on the field will be John McDonald and Jason Smith.

On Friday, Reed Johnson was placed on the disabled list with a herniated disk. The left fielder has opted for surgery, so don’t expect him back anytime soon. Rookie Adam Lind will replace Johnson for the time being.

Other injury news around the league:

Saves are oftentimes an overlooked aspect of fantasy baseball teams. Everyone is always in a hurry to lock up the number one starters around the league. However, if you position your lineup right, you can usually dominate the saves column.

As the season goes along, the fantasy teams that can pick up the closers first usually have a leg up in the competition. For example, the team who swooped in to get Jason Frasor after BJ Ryan went down for the Blue Jays will undoubtedly reap the benefits for the move.

Here are some guys flying under the radar right now who can be had cheaply but should rack up the saves in bunches this year:

• Salomon Torres - Torres has been around the block a couple times, but he’s done well so far this year closing games for the Pirates. The Pirates handed him the job this year and so far, so good for the Dominican who not long ago retired from the game for five years. He has a lively arm and if Pittsburgh is halfway decent, he could accumulate saves in a hurry.
• Al Reyes - The Devil Rays had there closer role up in the air to begin the season, but it looks like Reyes has taken the job. He’s been perfect so far and should keep the job for the time being. Sure, Tampa Bay won’t be winning many games, but he’s a good player to pluck off the waiver wire just in case.
• Todd Jones - Jones being a premiere closer shouldn’t surprise anyone, but it looks like he could be in store for a special season. The Tigers look dangerous and the pitching staff is deep. He’ll get plenty of opportunities and he has shown that he has the ability to close the door.

A number of players in the league are off to fast starts when it comes to their power numbers. Are they for real? FBLTalk looks into it:

• Alex Rodriguez - ARod has six homers in his first eight games. As he’s one of the best power hitters of this generation, you can’t call what he’s doing a fluke. 50 home runs isn’t out of the question.
• Jimmy Rollins - Rollins has smashed six dingers in his first nine games. That’s rather impressive for a guy whose career-high he set last year with 25. It’s hard to not call this show of power a fluke because he’s never been that much of a long ball threat. Although he’s young enough to be improving, don’t expect him to hit many more than he hit last season.
• Grady Sizemore - Sizemore is one of the better up-and-coming players in the league. This season, he already has four homers in his first six games. Although he’s never hit more than 28 dingers, this is a guy who can be expected to take a jump up in the power department.
• Miguel Cabrera - Cabrera has four home runs in his first nine games. One of the most talented hitters in the game and only 23 years old, the sky is the limit for the right handed Venezuelan. Last season he only hit 26 long balls, but it’d surprise no one if he exploded this season for 40.

Wednesday’s game was billed as must see TV and it lived up to the hype. In what was a battle of two of the most exciting pitchers in the game, Hernandez stole the show.

Hernandez, a 21-year-old right hander form Venezuela, pitched a one-hit shutout against the Boston Red Sox in Boston. He struck out six batters while only allowing two walks.

Matsuzaka wasn’t bad himself, allowing three runs in seven innings, while striking out four. It wasn’t quite as magical as his big league debut, but his stuff looked as wicked as ever.

The Red Sox as a team are off to a slow start, winning only half of their first eight ball games. However, their big bats haven’t warmed up yet, so it isn’t time to panic if you are a Red Sox fan. David Ortiz and company will get it turned around soon enough.

As far as the Mariners go, most experts have written them off. Outside of the excitement of watching a young phenom pitcher, it’s likely going to be a long 162 for Mariner fans. Their bats are even colder than those of the Red Sox, but the bad news is that they aren’t nearly as talented.

Ichiro and Richie Sexson are legit fantasy starters but other than that duo, the cupboard is pretty bare in Seattle. Unless, of course, you are speaking of one King Felix and his magical right arm.

Alex Rodriguez, or Pay-Rod as Seattle Mariner fans so lovingly dubbed him when he left for Texas to sign the richest deal in baseball history, is worth every penny these days. Seven games into the season and Rodriguez has already hit six home runs.

Although he’s always been a top three pick most years in fantasy baseball, there were leagues this year where Rodriguez didn’t get drafted until late in the first round or early in the second round. If you were one of the lucky ones to draft him that late, that move in itself might win you the championship. With the way this guy is swinging the bat, he looks like he’s the player to have right now.

A lot of fantasy players were scared off by the fact that Rodriguez’s numbers have been trending downward over the last couple seasons. Last season’s total of 35 home runs was the lowest output for the Yankee’s third baseman since 1997. He also wasn’t stealing many bases and his batting average and RBI numbers were down.

The problem with ARod has been confidence. He’s a gentle soul playing under the microscope that is the Big Apple. He’s not made to constantly be in the spotlight. However, now that he’s off to a torrid start, there’s a good chance that this could avalanche into a giant season. Rodriguez has a couple 50+ home run seasons under his belt and early indications are this could be another one.

If you can get Pay-Rod now via trade, he’d be a good buy.

In Fantasy Baseball, you not only have to pay attention to stats, but you also have to keep tabs on how teams are playing. When it comes to fantasy numbers such as runs, RBIs, wins and saves, teammates are sometimes just as important as the player themselves.

Today let’s take a look at teams who have started off bad for a reason. You can sometimes mine gems from loser teams, but these teams will have fewer quality fantasy players than most other teams.

Recognizing The Losers

• Kansas City Royals - The Royals just suck. They’ve been bad for a long time and that won’t change this year. Despite a couple early season wins, they’ve now lost three games in a row to go back to there customary spot in the cellar of their division.
• Washington Nationals - Here’s another poor excuse for a franchise. Are they even trying to win these days? At least when they played in Montreal they had a built in excuse for losing. They now play in a big market and still can’t get the job done. Hope is lost already in Washington.
• San Francisco Giants - The big news in San Fran this season will be Barry Bonds’ chase of history. And with the way the team is playing, that could be the only news. The Giants lost a lot of talent and didn’t bring much talent in. Any halfway decent mathematician can tell you that’s not a recipe for success … especially for a team that wasn’t all that to begin with.

Despite the dreary weather throughout the country, it was a busy Easter Sunday for MLB with 14 games in the books. Surprisingly, only the double header scheduled in Cleveland was snowed out.

Big Papi busted out of a mini-slump and went yard twice to lift Curt Schilling and the Red Sox to a 3-2 victory over the Rangers. Ortiz was struggling with only two hits in 18 at bats going into the game.

The 40-year-old Schilling looked like he still has something left in the tank. Despite giving up eight hits and four earned runs in four innings in his season debut last week, he did strike out five in that game. On Sunday afternoon, he only allowed four hits, one run (a Catalanotto solo shot) and one walk in seven innings pitched, while striking out six. Jonathan Papelbon got the save for Boston, his second of this young season.

Dodgers Luis Gonzalez tagged two homeruns of his own as L.A. defeated San Francsco in a 10-4 rout.

Daisuke Matsuzaka was a player who was all over the draft board. Some saw Dice-K as nothing more than a Boston hype job, while others drafted him as if he were Cy Young incarnate.

Cy Young better scoot over, after game one at least. Matsuzaka was dazzling in his big league debut, with ten strikeouts in seven innings pitched. He gave up six hits, one walk and only one earned run while getting the win for Boston.

And the best news for Dice-K owners is that it didn’t look like a fluke. He was throwing upwards of 95 miles per hour and his off speed pitches were more devastating than advertised.

However, a smart Dice-K owner is already thinking about selling high. Even if he continues to be the best pitcher in the American League, his stock in some leagues might be even higher than that. If you can get another top of the line pitcher and a bat from a team, don’t let the excitement keep you from making a trade.

Selling high wins fantasy championships.

Early in the baseball season, feel good stories run rampant. Whether it’s a guy making it back from injury or the guy with the troubled past getting his life back on track, you can usually find a couple of heart warming stories around the league this time of year.

And not only can these stories warm the heart, they also have fantasy implications. Although usually these type of players are more of an impact in keeper or dynasty leagues, there are always a couple players who come out of nowhere to be big contributors right away.

Here are three players who you should keep an eye on:

Josh Hamilton - Hamilton’s story has the chance to become one of the best feel good stories of all-time. Here’s a guy who battled various demons over the last few years that kept him out of the game completely. He was the number one overall selection in the 1999 draft, but drugs ravaged his career and it wasn’t until this week that he finally appeared in a big league game. If he can shake off the rust and regain some of the skills that made him the top prospect in 1999, Hamilton could be the sleeper of the season for the Cincinnati Reds.

Elijah Dukes - This 22-year-old member of the Tampa Bay Devil Rays has had his share of run-ins with the law. It’s been reported that he’s been arrested a half dozen times, including a couple incidents recently. Given that, he’s a phenomenal five-tool talent who could do big things down the line. If he can turn his life around (and there are reports that he has), be sure to track his status.

Eric Gagne - In 2003, Gagne had perhaps the best season ever by a relief pitcher. He converted all 55 save opportunities with the Los Angeles Dodgers that season, to go along with a 1.20 ERA, a Cy Young Award and a sixth place showing in the MVP award. However, over the last two season, the once unhittable Gagne has only been able to pitch 15 total innings. This season, he has signed with the Texas Rangers and while he’s currently on the injured list, he’s expected to pitch soon and could have an immediate impact.

Don’t you love it when scrub players get off to a blazing start and then all the fantasy players in your league get overly excited? You check your league’s waiver wire and see that all the players who went 4-for-4 on opening day get picked up.

Happens every year. Once that happens, then I officially can ring in the baseball New Year.

Let’s look at players who are off to fast starts and which are for real and which are flukes.

Heroes

• Vladimir Guerrero - This is a case of a great player off to a great start. Guerrero has five hits in his first seven at bats, including a double, a homer and four RBIs.
• Richie Sexson - Sexson is off to a big start. Two hits, two homers in his first two games. Expect him to get his 35-45 dingers and 110-125 RBIs.
• Miguel Cabrera - Is there a more naturally skilled player in the game? This guy was born to hit. Five hits in seven at bats, with five RBIs, a homer and two doubles.

Zeroes

• Trot Nixon - The longtime Bostonian is now in Cleveland and has gotten off to a fast start. Don’t fall for it. If you do have him, sell high!
• Ian Kinsler - Kinsler is a solid young prospect. He has a chance to bust out this season, but don’t go overboard on this kid. He doesn’t have an overly high ceiling and won’t keep up the power numbers he’s shown early in the season.
• Orlando Hudson - He’s off to a nice start but he’ll find his way back to mediocrity before long. He’s nearly 30, so don’t expect a sudden breakout season from this guy.

Welcome to my Fantasy Baseball blog. Throughout the season, I will be giving everyone advice on the daily dealings of Fantasy Baseball. From the draft to the championships, I will hopefully be your guide to victory. I hope you all enjoy the blog!

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